WORLD BANK: Nigeria Overview.

DR. JONATHAN.
Economic overview and performance
With a population of about 160 million people, Nigeria is the largest country in Africa and accounts for 47% of West Africa’s population. It is also th.e biggest oil exporter in Africa, with the largest natural gas reserves in the continent. With these large reserves of human and natural resources, the country is poised to build a prosperous economy, significantly reduce poverty, and provide health, education and infrastructure services to meet its population needs.
Since 1999, Nigeria embarked on an ambitious reform agenda. The most far reaching of those was to base the budget on a conservative reference price for oil, with excess saved in a special, Excess Crude Account (ECA). The economy responded with strong growth between 2003 and 2010 – averaging 7.6%. Nigeria was among the first countries to adopt and implement the Extractive Industries Transparency InitiativeBANK (EITI) to improve governance and oil sector. The NEITI Act was passed into law in 2007, and the country became EITI compliant in 2011.
The power sector reform initiative was launched in 2005, recognizing that improving power sector performance is critical to address development challenges. The challenging process of implementing reforms was revitalized in August 2010 through the 2010 Roadmap, which clearly outlines the government’s strategy and actions to undertake comprehensive power sector reform to expand supply, open the door to private investment and address some the chronic sector issues hampering improvement of service delivery.
Weaknesses in the oil sector have increased macroeconomic risks. Oil accounts for close to 90% of exports and roughly 75% of consolidated budgetary revenues. The decline in oil output, together with somewhat weaker oil prices, can be associated with a weakening of the balance of payments and shortfalls of budgetary revenues. The balance of payments surplus registered from October 2011 to April 2013 has disappeared; official foreign reserves declined slightly from almost $49 billion in end-April 2013 to $46 billion on September 19, 2013. There is also the issue of short term portfolio capital inflows that reportedly reached more than $17 billion in 2012. These inflows have been targeting primarily the government bond market, with interest rates at 12-14% and a rather stable exchange rate relative to the US dollar. These short term capital flows have added another potential source of volatility to the country's macroeconomic situation. On the positive side, Nigeria still has significant room to borrow to meet possible macroeconomic challenges. In light of the recent Paris Club restructuring, foreign debt is now only 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) while domestic debt is 16% of GDP.
Declining oil revenues have placed increasing pressures on government budgets. As of the second half of the year, total federation revenues available for sharing by the three tiers of government fell short of projections by 21%. The balance of the fiscal reserve of the country (Excess Crude Account) declined from over $9 billion in early 2013 to $5 billion by mid-year. The implementation of the capital budget has been adversely affected as only a little over half of the federal capital budget has been made available to line ministries as of the end of September for the implementation of investment projects. Early indications from the 2014-2016 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) point towards a significant fiscal contraction in 2014 although the MTEF is still under consideration by the National Assembly. However, the forthcoming presidential elections would also make compressing budgetary expenditures quite difficult in 2014.
Despite the increased macroeconomic risks, projections for the second half of the year are cautiously optimistic. Most importantly, preliminary indications are that oil production is picking up somewhat in the second half of the year. If oil prices also remain generally strong, this could relieve the short term pressures described about and strengthen the confidence of investors. Prudent macroeconomic policy has finally brought inflation down to single digit levels. Structural reforms in power and agriculture appear to be paying at least some dividends, even if their main potential impact of these measures will be in the longer term. The pre-election environment will pose some particular challenges for sustaining reforms and notably, prudent fiscal policy. During the previous run-up to the 2011 elections, a major fiscal expansion almost destabilized the economy. Growth continued to be broad based, oriented primarily toward the domestic market, and driven by strong performance of the agricultural, trade, telecommunications, and manufacturing sectors. However, strong economic growth has not translated into higher employment rates. Employment remains the major issue with an estimated 50 million underemployed youth. The government has expressed determination to make job creation central to its economic strategy and has specifically targeted the information communication technology (ICT), entertainment, meat, leather, construction and tourism industries.
Political context
Nigeria’s population is made up of about 200 ethnic groups, 500 indigenous languages, and two major religions ― Islam and Christianity. The largest ethnic groups are the Hausa-Fulani in the North, the Igbo in the Southeast, and the Yoruba in the Southwest. The fragmentation of Nigeria’s geographical, ethnic and cultural identity lines is effectively balanced by the country’s federal structure and the strong emphasis of the federal government on representing six geopolitical zones and different ethnic and cultural identities. Though Nigeria’s socio-political environment is fairly stable, there are pockets of instability in some parts of the country.
The fifth consecutive national elections will take place in April 2015, further consolidating democratic rule which began in 1999. The fourth elections held in 2011 signified substantial progress in electoral and democratic development, and were characterized by observers as freest and fairest in the country's election history. There have been, however, unrelated incidents of violence before and after the elections, calling for resolute actions in bringing sectarian strife under control and signaling the need to make more rapid progress on social inclusion, especially youth employment.
Internationally, Nigeria continues to be a leading player in the African Union, the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), and in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
Development Challenges
Despite a strong economic track record, poverty is significant, and reducing it will require strong non-oil growth and a focus on human development. Constraints to growth, such as the investment climate; infrastructure, incentives and policies affecting agricultural productivity as well as quality, and relevance of tertiary education have been identified. In spite of successful initiatives in human development, Nigeria may not be on track for meeting most of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Underpinning these challenges is the core issue of governance, in particular, at the state level. Fiscal decentralization provides 36 states and 774 local governments considerable policy autonomy, control of 50% of government revenues, and responsibility for delivery of public services. Capacity is weak in most states, and improving governance will be a long term process.
Last Updated: Oct 01, 2014


WORLD BANK.

Popular posts from this blog

UK GENERAL ELECTIONS:Inquiry announced into memo alleging Sturgeon wants Tory election victory.

Image
Civil service instigates investigation into leaked memo from Foreign Office about supposed comments made in February Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, with David Cameron in her office at the Scottish parliament earlier this year. Photograph: WPA Pool/Getty A civil service inquiry into a leaked memo which claimed that Nicola Sturgeon privately wanted to see David Cameron remain in power after the general election has been instigated following calls from the First Minister. Ms Sturgeon described the allegation as “100% untrue” and accused Whitehall of “dirty tricks”.
Read more

Ebola Outbreak: Guinea Declares Emergency As Overall Deaths From Ebola Rise To 1,069

Image
Health workers take passengers' temperatures infrared digital laser thermometers at the Felix Houphouet Boigny international airport in Abidjan on Aug. 13, 2014. Ivory Coast on Monday banned air travellers from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the three countries worst-hit by the Ebola outbreak, and ordered its flagship carrier Air Cote d'Ivoire to cease flights to and from them. Reuters/Luc Gnago Guinea, one of the worst-hit West African nations in the ongoing Ebola outbreak, announced a state of emergency Wednesday. The World Health Organization, or WHO, also  said  that four new people died in Guinea between Aug. 10 and Aug. 11. The total death count in Guinea from the latest epidemic was estimated at 377 by WHO while the number of cases reported had risen to ...
Read more

Sandhurst's sheikhs: Why do so many Gulf royals receive military training in the UK? A parade outside the building at Sandhurst Continue reading the main story In today's Magazine The death list that names 5,000 victims Is this woman an apostate? Voices from a WW1 prison camp The Swiss selfie scandal Generations of foreign royals - particularly from the Middle East - have learned to be military leaders at the UK's Sandhurst officer training academy. But is that still a good idea, asks Matthew Teller. Since 1812, the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, on the Surrey/Berkshire border, has been where the British Army trains its officers. It has a gruelling 44-week course testing the physical and intellectual skills of officer cadets and imbuing them with the values of the British Army. Alongside would-be British officers, Sandhurst has a tradition of drawing cadets from overseas. Many of the elite families of the Middle East have sent their sons and daughters. Perhaps the most notable was King Hussein of Jordan. Continue reading the main story Find out more Matthew Teller presents Sandhurst and the Sheikhs, a Whistledown production for BBC Radio 4, on Wednesday 27 August 2014 at 11:00 BST It will be available on iPlayer shortly after broadcast Four reigning Arab monarchs are graduates of Sandhurst and its affiliated colleges - King Abdullah of Jordan, King Hamad of Bahrain, Sheikh Tamim, Emir of Qatar, and Sultan Qaboos of Oman. Past monarchs include Sheikh Saad, Emir of Kuwait, and Sheikh Hamad, Emir of Qatar. Sandhurst's links have continued from the time when Britain was the major colonial power in the Gulf. "One thing the British were excellent at was consolidating their rule through spectacle," says Habiba Hamid, former foreign policy strategist to the rulers of Dubai and Abu Dhabi. "Pomp, ceremony, displays of military might, shock and awe - they all originate from the British military relationship." Sheikh Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa, King Abdullah, Sultan Qaboos Sandhurst alumni: King Hamad of Bahrain, King Abdullah of Jordan and Sultan Qaboos of Oman It's a place where future leaders get to know each other, says Michael Stephens, deputy director of the Royal United Services Institute, Qatar. And Sandhurst gives the UK influence in the Gulf. "The [UK] gets the kind of attention from Gulf policy elites that countries of our size, like France and others, don't get. It gives us the ability to punch above our weight. "You have people who've spent time in Britain, they have… connections to their mates, their teachers. Familiarity in politics is very beneficial in the Gulf context." "For British people who are drifting around the world, as I did as a soldier," says Brigadier Peter Sincock, former defence attache to Saudi Arabia, "you find people who were at Sandhurst and you have an immediate rapport. I think that's very helpful, for example, in the field of military sales." The Emir of Dubai Mohammad bin Rashid Al Maktoum with his son after his Passing Out Parade at Sandhurst in 2006 Sheikh Mohammad bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Emir of Dubai, with his son in uniform at Sandhurst in 2006 Her Majesty The Queen's Representative His Highness Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani, The Emir of Qatar inspects soldiers during the 144th Sovereign's Parade held at The Royal Military Academy Sandhurst on April 8, 2004 in Camberley, England. Some 470 Officer cadets took part of which 219 were commissioned into the British Army Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani, the Emir of Qatar until 2013, inspects soldiers at Sandhurst in 2004 Emotion doesn't always deliver. In 2013, despite the personal intervention of David Cameron, the UAE decided against buying the UK's Typhoon fighter jets. But elsewhere fellow feeling is paying dividends. "The Gulf monarchies have become important sources of capital," says Jane Kinninmont, deputy head of the Middle East/North Africa programme at the foreign affairs think tank Chatham House. "So you see the tallest building in London being financed by the Qataris, you see UK infrastructure and oilfield development being financed by the UAE. There's a desire - it can even seem like a desperation - to keep them onside for trade reasons." British policy in the Gulf is primarily "mercantile", says Dr Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, of the Baker Institute in Houston, Texas. Concerns over human rights and reform are secondary. The Shard at dusk The Shard was funded by Qatari investors In 2012 Sandhurst accepted a £15m donation from the UAE for a new accommodation block, named the Zayed Building after that country's founding ruler. In March 2013, Sandhurst's Mons Hall - a sports centre - was reopened as the King Hamad Hall, following a £3m donation from the monarch of Bahrain, who was educated at one of Sandhurst's affiliated colleges. The renaming proved controversial, partly because of the perceived slight towards the 1,600 British casualties at the Battle of Mons in August 1914 - and partly because of how Hamad and his government have dealt with political protest in Bahrain over the last three years. A critic might note that the third term of Sandhurst's Officer Commissioning Course covers counter-insurgency techniques and ways to manage public disorder. Since tension between Bahrain's majority Shia population and minority Sunni ruling elite boiled over in 2011, more than 80 civilians have died at the hands of the security forces, according to opposition estimates, though the government disputes the figures. Thirteen police officers have also lost their lives in the clashes. "The king has always felt that Sandhurst was a great place," says Sincock, chairman of the Bahrain Society, which promotes friendship between the UK and Bahrain. "Something like 20 of his immediate family have been there as cadets. He didn't really understand why there was such an outcry." David Cameron and King Hamad David Cameron meeting King Hamad in 2012... A protester is held back by police ... while protesters nearby opposed the Bahrain ruler's human rights record Crispin Black, a Sandhurst graduate and former instructor, says the academy should not have taken the money. "Everywhere you look there's a memorial to something, a building or a plaque that serves as a touchstone that takes you right to the heart of British military history. Calling this hall 'King Hamad Hall' ain't gonna do that." Sandhurst gave a written response to the criticism. "All donations to Sandhurst are in compliance with the UK's domestic and international legal obligations and our values as a nation. Over the years donations like this have saved the UK taxpayer a considerable amount of money." But what happens when Sandhurst's friends become enemies? In 2001, then-prime minister Tony Blair visited Damascus, marking a warming of relations between the UK and Syria. Shortly after, in 2003, Sandhurst was training officers from the Syrian armed forces. Now, of course, Syria is an international pariah. Journalist Michael Cockerell has written about Libyan dictator Colonel Gaddafi's time at the Army School of Education in Beaconsfield in 1966: "Three years [later], Gaddafi followed a tradition of foreign officers trained by the British Army. He made use of his newfound knowledge to seize political power in his own country." Ahmed Ali Sandhurst-trained Ahmed Ali was a key player in the Egyptian military's removal of Islamist President Mohammed Morsi That tradition persists. In the 1990s Egyptian colonel Ahmed Ali attended Sandhurst. In 2013 he was one of the key figures in the Egyptian military's removal of Islamist President Mohammed Morsi, now rewarded by a post in President Sisi's inner circle of advisers. In the late 1990s there were moves by the British government under Tony Blair to end Sandhurst's training of overseas cadets. Major-General Arthur Denaro, Middle East adviser to the defence secretary and commandant at Sandhurst in the late 1990s, describes the idea as part of the "ethical foreign policy" advocated by the late Robin Cook, then-foreign secretary. Tony Blair and Robin Cook Tony Blair and Robin Cook at one point planned to end Sandhurst's training of overseas cadets The funeral of King Hussein in 1999 appears to have scuppered the plan. "Coming to that funeral were the heads of state of almost every country in the world - and our prime minister was there, Tony Blair," says Major-General Denaro. "He happened to see me talking to heads of state - the Sultan of Brunei, the Sultan of Oman, the Bahrainis, the Saudis - and he said 'How do you know all these guys?' The answer was because they went to Sandhurst." Today, Sandhurst has reportedly trained more officer cadets from the UAE than from any other country bar the UK. The May 2014 intake included 72 overseas cadets, around 40% of whom were from the Middle East. "In the future," says Maryam al-Khawaja, acting president of the Bahrain Centre for Human Rights, "people will look back at how much Britain messed up in the [Middle East] because they wanted to sell more Typhoon jets to Bahrain, rather than stand behind the values of human rights and democracy." "It's one thing saying we're inculcating benign values, but that's not happening," says Habiba Hamid. Sandhurst is "a relic of the colonial past. They're not [teaching] the civic values we ought to find in democratically elected leaders." line Who else went to Sandhurst? Princes William and Harry, Winston Churchill, Ian Fleming, Katie Hopkins, Antony Beevor, James Blunt, Josh Lewsey, Devon Harris (From left to right) Princes William and Harry Sir Winston Churchill Ian Fleming, creator of James Bond (but did not complete training) Katie Hopkins, reality TV star Antony Beevor, historian James Blunt, singer-songwriter Josh Lewsey, World Cup-winning England rugby player Devon Harris, member of Jamaica's first bobsleigh team line Sandhurst says that "building international relations through military exchanges and education is a key pillar of the UK's international engagement strategy". Sandhurst may be marvellous for the UK, a country where the army is subservient to government, but it is also delivering militarily-trained officers to Middle Eastern monarchies where, often, armies seem to exist to defend not the nation but the ruling family.

Image
Generations of foreign royals - particularly from the Middle East - have learned to be military leaders at the UK's Sandhurst officer training academy. But is that still a good idea, asks Matthew Teller. Since 1812, the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, on the Surrey/Berkshire border, has been where the British Army trains its officers. It has a gruelling 44-week course testing the physical and intellectual skills of officer cadets and imbuing them with the values of the British Army. Alongside would-be British officers, Sandhurst has a tradition of drawing cadets from overseas. Many of the elite families of the Middle East have sent their sons and daughters. Perhaps the most notable was King Hussein of Jordan. Four reigning Arab monarchs are graduates of Sandhurst and its affiliated colleges - King Abdullah of Jordan, King Hamad of Bahrain, Sheikh Tamim, Emir of Qatar, and Sultan Qaboos of Oman. Past monarchs include Sheikh S...
Read more