The Beginning Of The End For Putin? Real Reform Begins To Take Hold In Ukraine.
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| Ukrainian weekly Novoye Vremya shows First Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Eka Zguladze, who held the same position during similar reforms in Georgia. The headline reads “The First Real Reform.” (image credit: Novoye Vremya) |
This past February, a new ceasefire was signed, which seems to be holding up for the most part. But even now, Russia, is beefing up its forces at the border, threatening a new offensive. By all accounts, the situation in Ukraine remains precarious.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his intention to destroy the country, even going so far as to deny that it is, in fact, a country. For those who are familiar with Putin’s regime, this is hardly surprising. A successful, vibrant and democratic neighbor on Russia’s border would only serve to remind his constituents how repressive and ineffectual his rule has become.
As I argued a year ago, the sanctions imposed by the Obama administration could bring down the Russian leader. Now, faced with a crumbling economy, rampant corruption and international isolation many believe that Putin is fighting for his political survival. Clearly, he cannot afford Ukraine to become a model for his disgruntled countrymen.
Yet for all his efforts, real reform appears to be starting to take hold in Ukraine. The Financial Times recently reported that the country is on “the right road.” Prime Minister Yatsenyuk has brought in an impressive array of technocrats, including foreigners and experienced business executives, such as the former General Manager of Microsoft Ukraine, to help make some much needed changes.
The new government took office at the end of last year and seems to be making progress. It successfully negotiated a $17.5 billion stabilization package from the IMF that, with additional contributions from the US and the EU, could reach $40 billion. It also recently introduced important reforms to its gas sector and plans to privatize thousands of state owned businesses, both key sources of corruption.
However, as the Ukrainian weekly Novoye Vremya noted in its cover story last week, the most important reform may be the transformation of its notorious traffic police. Its headline reads, “The First Real Reform.”
As Vitaly Sych, Editor-in-Chief of Novoye Vremya told me, “This is the first reform that will immediately affect the average Ukrainian citizen. Unlike obscure economic reforms, which will mostly impact the country in 3-5 years, this one will be immediately felt.”
Anybody who’s spent time in Ukraine knows what he means. Most corruption is either a minor nuisance or goes on behind the scenes. People might not like the fact that they need to pay a bribe to get a business registered or that somebody is looting the coffers at some state owned company, but it doesn’t affect their daily life.
The notriously corrupt traffic police, on the other hand, is a constant reminder that the system is rotten to the core. Just about everyone is stopped and shaken down on a regular basis, based on nothing more than the whims of an officer in need of some extra cash. Effective reform in this area would send a strong signal that things really are changing.
The program is being headed up by First Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Eka Zguladze, who held the same position in her native Georgia, which implemented similar police reforms. It is being funded by the US government and training and selection of officers will be supervised by a team of police from Reno, Nevada.
So far, indications are positive. According to Bloomberg, 27,000 people applied for only 2000 positions in Kyiv, despite high standards. All applicants must have a secondary degree or higher, a drivers license and knowledge of at least one foreign language. Salaries are being raised from roughly $80 per month to almost $500—a very good salary in Ukraine.
If successful, the reforms would make a significant difference, as they did in Georgia a decade ago. Sych of Novoye Vremya points out that most reforms, like the rationalization of gas prices to reflect market rates, are painful. Solving the problem of everyday corruption would go a long way to convincing Ukrainians that the hardships they are enduring will be worth it.
“There are still problems, no doubt,” he says. “There has been no prosecution of officials of former officials. Tax reform has stalled. There has been no move to cut the ridiculous amount of regulations and red tape. The Georgians did that within the first three months. Things should be moving faster. There’s no excuse for the slow pace.”
Nevertheless, he sees things moving forward. “For twenty years, we did nothing. Now things are starting to happen. This process will take ten years, at least. And we will see positive changes within three to five years. We are moving away from Russia and moving toward the civilized democratic world.”
And that, no doubt, is what Putin fears
the most. If Ukraine follows the path of Poland, the Baltics and
Georgia, ordinary Russians will begin to wonder why they are being left
behind. That will leave the Russian President with only two
options—reform the corrupt Russian system or make his regime even more
oppressive, both of which will cause him further problems that, given
his regime’s weakened state, he can ill afford.
As for Ukraine, it seems to have left Russia’s “sphere of influence” for good. One recent poll
showed that 37% thought it was important to have good relations with
the US, while only 16% said the same about Russia. Another poll showed that 44% want to join NATO up from only 13% a few years ago.
“We now know who are true
friends now: Poland, the Baltics and the US,” Sych told me. “Our enemies
are Russia and anybody who supports it.”
forbes.
