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Remember earlier this week when the New York Times and the Washington Post -- going on information provided by unnamed U.S. officials -- told us that the Islamic State used the cover of a sandstorm to avoid coalition airstrikes while taking Ramadi?
It was a unique and fascinating narrative. Literally the fog of war. But now another official tells us it didn’t happen.
Briefing reporters at the Pentagon on Wednesday,
Central Command spokesman Col. Patrick Ryder abruptly changed course on
that story, saying that there was only “minor dust and haze,” over the
weekend in Ramadi that had “zero impact,” on coalition air operations.
In fact, stats released by the U.S. military show that the coalition
launched 15 airstrikes against Islamic State targets in and around
Ramadi on May 16 and 17 during the heaviest of the fighting, with no
mention of sandstorms curtailing those operations.
Sandstorm or no, exhausted Iraqi troops who had been holding the city
for more than a year finally broke when an estimated 30 car bombs ripped
apart their leadership structure, and a wave of determined fighters
surged at them.
War is complicated. It’s a chaotic, multilayered rush of events that
despite our best efforts rarely follows a linear path. But the story
being offered by American officials on what’s happening in Iraq has been
changing so often, and so quickly, that it’s bordering on incredulity.
Earlier this month, for example, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen.
Martin Dempsey and Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren offered
diametrically opposed views of how critical
the oil refinery at Baiji was to Iraqi security. That came after
Dempsey downplayed the significance of Ramadi, only to have it now
emerge as the major line of effort.
And just two days before Ramadi fell on May 17, Marine Corps Brig. Gen.
Thomas Weidley gave an optimistic briefing to the press insisting that
the Islamic State is “on the defensive” across Iraq, and that he
expected Iraqi forces to soon push them out of Anbar capital.
But the fall of Ramadi and the Syrian city of Palmyra this week undercuts that, as does a far more dire assessment from a State Department official who told reporters Wednesday
that “nobody is kidding themselves about what ISIL was able to pull
off” in Ramadi. The official added that the Islamic State is “better in
every respect” than the al Qaeda enemy that U.S. forces battled in Iraq
over the last decade.
Defense Secretary Ash Carter has said relatively little publicly about
Iraq, and has fielded even fewer questions. Three months into the job he
has yet to appoint a spokesperson for his office to help coordinate the
message. Would that smoothe over the competing narratives about the
fluid fight in Iraq? Hard to say. And more voices on the ground are
always a good thing. If the stories hold up.
Oh, and in Moscow: And while all this is happening, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi is in Moscow for meetings with President Vladimir Putin to discuss security cooperation and potential arms deals. The U.S. announced Wednesday
it will send one thousand anti-tank weapons to Iraq as soon as possible
to help combat the captured military vehicles that Islamic State is
turning into suicide bombs on wheels.
More than bathroom reading. Among other highbrow reads, Foreign Policy magazine was on Osama bin Laden's bookshelf. On Wednesday, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a trove of documents grabbed by the Navy SEALS who raided his Abbottabad compound in May 2011, and FP dove right in. Some highlights:
David Francis on Al Qaeda’s Blueprint For How To Start a Homegrown Terror Franchise
Benjamin Soloway on bin Laden’s Odd Religious Library
Siobhan O’Grady on Osama bin Laden Was a Francophile
David Francis again on Have What it Takes to be in Al Qaeda? Apply here
Francis just couldn’t get enough. Here he is on Osama bin Laden’s Letter to the American People
Welcome to a very special edition of the Situation Report where we
celebrate the fact that it’s Thursday. A day out from a long weekend is
all the reason we need, friends. Whatcha got? Let us know at paul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.com or on Twitter: @paulmcleary
The White House pushed back on a claim by North Korea on Wednesday
that the hermit kingdom has developed the tech to miniaturize nuclear
weapons, an important step in developing a nuclear missile. “Our
assessment of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities has not changed,” White
House spokesman Patrick Ventrell said in an e-mail to FPs John Hudson. “We do not think that they have that capacity.”
FP’s Sean Naylor is down in Tampa at the annual
Special Operations Forces Industry Conference, which for SitRep’s money
is hands down the most enjoyable defense conference of the year. (Think
nightly booze cruises, Special Ops combat assault demonstrations in the
canal next to the Tampa Convention Center, and dinners in Ybor City.)
But there’s also business being conducted.
Naylor tells us
that Army Brig. Gen. Kurt Crytzer, the deputy commanding general in
charge of U.S. special operations forces in the Middle East, said the
United States' information campaign in the region is so weak that many
Iraqi troops believe American forces are secretly supplying the Islamic
State. “Our adversaries are constantly one step ahead of us in the IO
realm,” said, using the acronym for information operations.
Who’s Where When
10:00 a.m.
Cédric Schweizer, head of delegation in Yemen for the International
Committee of the Red Cross, will speak at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies.
11:00 a.m
Iraq’s ambassador to the U.S. Lukman Faily (@FailyLukman) is taking
part in a Twitter Q&A hosted by Michael Hanna (@mwhanna1) - Senior
Fellow, The Century Foundation.
Mali
French special forces have killed two key jihadi leaders, the Lebanon Daily Star reports. Four militants
were killed, one of whom is “believed to have masterminded the
kidnapping of two French journalists who were murdered in Mali in 2013.”
Asia
The U.S. and about 20 of its Asian allies are hashing out how to better
integrate their amphibious forces on tactical deployments in the
Pacific, Tim Kelly reports for Reuters.
The meeting is the “first of its kind,” according to a senior U.S.
official, who added that China was not invited to the party.
France
They may have Airbus, but they still want American planes. At least, that’s what Pierre Tran from Defense News reports.
President Francois Hollande has announced a $4.2 billion increase in
military spending between 2016 and 2019, which includes an extra $1.7
billion to acquire additional equipment, including the C-130 Hercules.
Middle East
Since early November, three Marine Corps tilt-rotor Ospreys and about
two dozen Marines have been on constant standby in Kuwait in case a
coalition warplane went down in Iraq or Afghanistan. And on 29 different
occasions between November and April, the birds and grunts went
airborne to loiter nearby in case something went wrong, for a total of
145 air missions. The team is part of a Special Purpose Marine Air
Ground Task Force Crisis Response Central Command, Richard Whittle reports for Breaking Defense.
The Islamic State has gained control of Palmyra, witnesses told the BBC. The UNESCO heritage site has already been subject to heavy shelling from both Islamic State terrorists and pro-Assad militia.
Think Tanked
The Wilson Center’s Marina Ottaway has a new paper out: “Stark Choice in Iraq,” which argues that
U.S. officials have been “deluding themselves that they can fight ISIS
in Iraq without cooperating with the Shiite militias and Iran. The
defeat in Ramadi proves them wrong. The goal of the new intervention in
Iraq is to defeat ISIS. The United States needs to focus on that goal
and work with the militias, or get out.”
Making Moves
Stephen C. Hedger has been nominated by the White House to be the next
Assistant Secretary of Defense for Legislative Affairs. He has been
serving as the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for
Legislative Affairs at the Department since April-FOREIGN POLICY. | | | | | |
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