Escalation of fighting in east Ukraine leaves ceasefire in tatters.

Ukraine president Petro Poroshenko says there is a ‘colossal threat of the resumption of large-scale hostilities by Russian and terrorist forces’

Ukrainian servicemen at a checkpoint near Marinka in eastern Ukraine. Photograph: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP

Fighting in east Ukraine has this week reportedly left 21 dead and a fragile ceasefire in tatters, prompting fears of a resumption of full-blown conflict in the region.


Speaking in his annual address to parliament in Kiev on Thursday, Ukraine’s president, Petro Poroshenko, said there was now a “colossal threat of the resumption of large-scale hostilities by Russian and terrorist forces”. He claimed there were 9,000 Russian troops currently in the rebel-controlled areas of east Ukraine.
The Ukrainians said five of their soldiers had died in fighting around the town of Marinka on Wednesday, while the Donetsk Republic said 16 fighters and five civilians had been killed. Both sides reported dozens of wounded in the battles.
As usual, both sides blamed the other for initiating the fighting, but a special report from observers on the ground with the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) strongly suggested the separatist fighters had gone on the offensive first.
Marinka was originally a settlement of around 9,000 people before the war broke out a year ago. In recent months it has become the frontline along the main road out of Donetsk to the west, with a number of rebel and Ukrainian checkpoints in close proximity. The other major hotspot currently is the town of Shirokyne, the last settlement before the rebels would be in sight of Mariupol, a major Ukrainian-held city, and a potential target if Russia wanted to drive a land bridge through to newly annexed Crimea.
A ceasefire between government and separatists was agreed in Febuary after negotiations between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany in Minsk.

Russia is under western sanctions for its role in Ukraine, but has consistently denied being a party to the conflict.

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“All agreements should be fully implemented so that no one is able to derail fragile progress by resuming military activity,” the Russian foreign ministry wrote on its Twitter feed, quoting minister Sergei Lavrov. “We must know who is shelling communities, thereby violating not only the Minsk agreements, but also international humanitarian law.”
Lavrov blamed Kiev for this week’s upsurge in fighting.
“The February Minsk agreements are constantly under threat because of the actions of the Kiev authorities, trying to walk away from their obligations to foster direct dialogue with Donbass,” he said.
Two men believed to be soldiers with Russia’s GRU military intelligence are in custody in Kiev having been apprehended near Luhansk. The men have said they were serving soldiers in a number of interviews, but Russia has again insisted they were not. For a year Russia has denied all involvement in the conflict despite an overwhelming amount of evidence to the contrary.
Last week the OSCE observers said they had witnessed a group of armed men wearing uniforms with Russian military markings in the conflict zone, as well as vehicles with Russian military plates.
On Wednesday, the Interfax news agency quoted Valentina Matvienko, speaker of the upper house of Russia’s parliament, saying it was possible an extraordinary session of the house could be called in the coming days.
This is the mechanism by which Russia can officially authorise the use of its troops on foreign territory. Later, however, the report was said to be a fake by a spokesperson for the parliamentary body.
Additionally, Igor Strelkov, a retired Russian officer who led rebel armed forces until August last year, claimed that the Kremlin’s powerful point man in east Ukraine, Vladislav Surkov, had made a secret trip to Donetsk in the past week to meet with rebel leaders.
The ceasefire deal was hammered out during marathon through-the-night talks in Minsk in February involving the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine.
Last month the US secretary of state, John Kerry, visited Sochi and held talks with Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin. A week later, US assistant secretary of state Victoria Nuland travelled to Moscow to follow up with meetings on Ukraine, as well as on Russian policy on Syria and Iran. Both Kerry and Putin affirmed their commitments to solving the Ukraine crisis through the Minsk agreement.
Although the Minsk document contains a comprehensive peace plan involving holding elections under Ukrainian law in east Ukraine and returning to Kiev control of the border with Russia, most observers believe the full provisions are unlikely to be carried out.
“Minsk is impossible to fulfil in practice and in theory, and that was obvious from the very first days,” a European diplomat based in Kiev told the Guardian recently. “It was a stopgap measure to stop the bloodshed. We have to have a plan B. But as far as I can see there is no plan B.”
Analysts say a full-blown war still remains unlikely, with Russia unwilling to move to a full-scale open invasion, and Kiev militarily incapable of winning the territory back without enormous losses.
However, the fluid situation on the ground means there is always the risk that minor skirmishes escalate into renewed conflict. Over 8,000 people have died since hostilities started a year ago.

theguardian.