Why American Pharoah, The First Triple Crown Winner In 37 Years, Is Worth $50 Million.
In a wire-to-wire victory in the Belmont Stakes, American Pharoah has become the first horse to win the Triple Crown in 37 years. Not since Affirmed crossed the wire ahead of Alydar in 1978 has this been done.
“[I knew we would win] in the first turn,” jockey Victor Espinoza said after the race. “I tell you, I had the best feeling ever when he crossed the first turn.”
The official margin of victory was five-and-a-half lengths. The 6-horse, Frosted, came in second. The 7-horse, Keen Ice, came in third. Rounding out the rest of the field (in order of finish) were Mubtaahij, Frammento, Madefromlucky, Tale of Verve, and Materiality.
“It’s very emotional. I was hoping it would happen,” trainer Bob Baffert said. “I just feel like I have a very special horse. He’s the one who won, it wasn’t me.”
It was a show-stopping race for a horse
that, throughout his Triple Crown campaign, was consistently described
as quiet, relaxed — and a horse that floats down the track. He certainly
looked like he was floating Saturday evening, and it’s not a
stretch to say that Pharoah was bred for this type of greatness: his
father, or sire, is Pioneerof the Nile, a horse who placed second in the
2009 Kentucky Derby. His grand-sire is Empire Maker, the horse that won the 2003 Belmont Stakes and denied Funny Cide his Triple Crown victory.
Interesting, it’s this pedigree that could prove even more valuable than the $800,000 he just won by placing first in the Belmont and landing in horse racing history.
“The sire line is very stamina oriented,
but the female line of descent — the dam, the second dam, the third dam —
they’ve all been very speed oriented horses,” says Sid Fernando,
president and CEO of thoroughbred research and consultant Werk
Thoroughbred Consultants. “It’s a unique pedigree, in a way.”
Between that unique pedigree and his Triple Crown win,
FORBES estimates that American Pharoah is worth nearly $50 million.
Though his breeding rights were sold to Coolmore Ashford Stud in late
2014 for a reported $13.8 million, this figure does not account for
Pharoah’s full value: for one, owner Ahmed Zayat retained 100% of
Pharoah’s racing rights. For another, the deal was struck before
Pharoah’s three-year-old season — so before he won the Derby, the
Preakness, and now, the Belmont. (Coolmore did not respond to a FORBES
request for comment.)
“His race record is sheer brilliance,” said David Ingordo,
the bloodstock agent who helped Zayat buy American Pharoah back after
selling him at auction in 2013. “He could be a $100,000 stud fee
stallion pretty easily.”
The industry rule of thumb dictates that a horse’s value
is calculated by multiplying his expected stud fee (the price to breed
him to one mare) by 300 to 400. This math assumes the horse will “book”
100 mares per year over three to four years, though stellar stallions
could conceivably book 120 to even 150 a year. The stud fee is due when
the foal is born; as long as the foal survives, the breeders get the
paycheck. And since Coolmore has farms in North America and Australia
and could stand American Pharoah for breeding seasons in both locations,
booking 120 mares is not outside the realm of possibility. One-hundred
and twenty mares a year for four years at a $100,000 stud fee gives
Pharoah a $48 million value.
Others put his value a bit below that eye-popping figure.
“I would not expect the Coolmore team to stand him at that
price, but anything is possible,” said Peter Bradley, a Kentucky-based
bloodstock agent. Bradley estimates Pharoah could stand at stud for
$75,000, a fee that, multiplied by 120 mares over four years, puts his
price tag closer to $36 million.
Glenye Cain Oakford, author of The Home Run Horse,
a book about horses that become stallions after finding success on the
racetrack, agrees that $75,000 is a realistic stud fee for Pharoah, but
ultimately caps his value at $25 million. “I admit, I’m probably more
conservative than some people, but then again, that Triple Crown can add
a certain amount of charm that we’ve not seen in 37 years, so I don’t
know what the market does with that,” she said.
“You almost start handicapping him again when he goes to
stud. The genes he carries are crucial to the breeder’s decision as to
whether he’s a worthy gamble as a sire,” Oakford added. “The race record
is also important, but this horse has what appears to be an emerging
pedigree.”
Oakford notes that because both Pharoah’s
sire and dam are relatively young — his sire is only on his third crop
of foals, and dam has produced just four foals, two of whom have raced
and one of whom has turned into American Pharoah — Pharoah has helped
his own pedigree. She and experts say that his sire, Pioneerof the Nile, could see his own stud value jump from its current $60,000 price tag to as much as $100,000.
This and other stud-fee hypotheses will be tested in the
coming year. In the meantime, those who compared him to the likes of
Affirmed and other thoroughbred greats can rejoice in knowing that
American Pharoah has, indeed, become just the 12th horse ever to win the
Triple Crown.
“Thirty-seven years we’ve waited for this but, you know
what, this little horse deserves it,” Baffert said. “There’s something
about this horse that he just brought it every time. He’s a joy to be
around.”
forbes.
